In its polls, MTSU has been asking the same basic question over the past three years to gauge the change in support for tax reform over time. When asked if they would support a state income tax coupled with reduction of the sales tax and elimination of the food tax, support for tax reform was:

• 46% in Spring 2002
• 58% in Fall 2002
• 61% in Spring 2003
• 62% in Fall 2003
• 59% in Spring 2004

Support for tax reform including a state income tax remains strong.

Poll analysts attribute the spike in support during 2002 to the sales tax increase, giving Tennessee the nations highest average sales tax. The Tennessean quoted one of the MTSU analysts, ''We began to see this kind of jump when the sales tax went into effect, ''said Robert Wyatt, director of the poll, after the spring 2003 poll results came out.

Support for tax reform has remained in the 60% range since.

Poll references below are from the spring 2003 poll results, although specific results have changed little since then.

Dispelling the myths... because they're just not true.

• Myth #1: The majority of Tennesseans oppose tax reform.

While the majority actually supports tax reform, that very same majority believes they are in the minority according to the poll. The Tennessean article reports:

The perception continues to be that most people oppose an income tax, he [Wyatt] said, though the data contradict that.

A total of 60% of those polled said they believed that the majority of Tennesseans were against an income tax coupled with sales tax cuts.

The ''noise'' last year of those opposed ôprotesters who circled War Memorial Plaza honking their horns off and on for days ô created the appearance that most people were adamantly against an income tax, Wyatt said.

He attributed the response to the ''spiral of silence,'' a theory that holds that people are less likely to speak out if they feel their stance is avidly opposed by what they perceive as a majority.

As Ken Blake, Associate Director of the MTSU poll put it, "The majority who support an income tax with sales tax cuts don't know they're in the majority. They assume everyone else is against the plan. People assume what they see on TV, i.e. horn honkers, is representative of the general public, but it's not. Blake adds, "A vocal, well-organized minority can appear to be a majority. This causes the real majority to sit down and be quiet."

It's time for us to break down this myth once and for all and turn our silent majority into a vocal majority.

• Myth #2: Those who will most benefit from tax reform are most opposed to it.

The MTSU poll confirmed a trend we've seen in many other polls that break support for tax reform down by income groups, education level, and race. Support for tax reform is actually STRONGEST among low- and modest-income households.

Backing was much higher at 69% among those earning $50,000 or less a year, compared with 53% among those making more than $50,000. Among those making less money, blacks were more supportive than whites.

• Myth #3: Tennesseans would rather just cut spending.

Although polls that ask about cutting spending in general typically get majority support, that support evaporates as soon as the cuts get specific. In fact, the MTSU poll shows that more Tennesseans believe we are spending too LITTLE on key government services than too much.

• A large majority (72%) said they believed the state was spending too little on elementary and secondary schools.
• Near majorities said too little was spent on community colleges and technical schools (49%), universities (49%), the mentally retarded (49%) and the handicapped (46%).
• Fully 41% said TennCare spending was inadequate; about one-third (30%) said too much was being spent.

References:

The full MTSU poll can be viewed at http://www.mtsu.edu/~mtpoll/
The Tennessean article about the poll is at http://www.tennessean.com/local/archives/03/03/30300353.shtml?Element_ID=30300353
The most recent 2004 results are at http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/mtpoll/s2004/Tax%20analysis%20-%2020040315_204pm.htm
For a TFT analysis of polls from early 2002, visit http://www.fairtaxation.org/tft/facts/polls.html