In a very public campaign, the opposition to tax reform worked during the past months to get legislators to sign a pledge that they would not vote for an income tax. When the dust settled, election results show that the tactic has backfired for most signers of that pledge.

A careful analysis of election results for state House and Senate seats by TFT members found that candidates who did not sign an anti-income tax pledge were more than twice as likely to win as signers of the pledge in races where they went head-to-head.

Out of 60 total House and Senate contested seats, 30 had races where pledgers and non-pledgers went head-to-head. 21 of those races were won by candidates who did not sign an anti-income tax pledge, while only 9 of those races were won by candidates who signed the pledge.

The Kingsport Times-News Reports: "Pro-income tax group says anti-income tax pledge failed to work in Tenn. elections" To see the full article, click here.

In the Senate, anti-income tax pledgers lost all 6 of their head-to-head challenges, including those of Sen. Ward Crutchfield and Sen. Jim Kyle, who both voted to pass Sen. Rochelle’s tax reform bill out of the Senate Finance Committee last November. In the House, the anti’s lost 15 and won 9 head-to-head challenges.

"When you look at the big picture, most people who signed the anti-income tax pledge actually lost in contested elections," states Dix Archer of Memphis as members gathered to debrief from the elections.

"A close look at this election gives us real hope that legislators are finding the courage to rescue Tennessee from political myth-making, as well as from a tax system that forces working families to pay more than their fair share," said the TFT leader. "And with a revenue shortfall from the last budget already predicted to be over $100m, legislative leadership for real tax reform has never been more timely."

IMPACT OF THE ANTI-INCOME TAX PLEDGE ON THE YEAR 2000 ELECTION RACES FOR THE TENNESSEE SENATE AND HOUSE

• Total House and Senate contested seats: 60 (56 candidates ran unopposed)
• Total races where anti-income tax pledgers and non-pledgers went head-to-head: 30
• Total head-to-head races won by anti-income tax pledgers: 9 (30%) (all House races)
• Total head-to-head races won by non-pledgers: 21 (70%)
• Total Senate head-to-head races won by anti-income tax pledgers: 0
• Total Senate head-to-head races won by non-pledgers: 6
• Total House head-to-head races won by non-pledgers: 15 out of 21 (72%)
• Total House seats won by anti-income tax pledgers: 23 out of 99 (23%)
• Total Senate seats won by anti-income tax pledgers: 7 out of 17 (41%)

NOTE: Some pledgers ran in unopposed seats and some ran against each other. The same was more common of non-pledgers.

In the Senate:

CANDIDATES WHO REFUSED TO SIGN THE ANTI-INCOME TAX PLEDGE AND WON AGAINST THOSE WHO SIGNED

In the House:

CANDIDATES WHO REFUSED TO SIGN THE ANTI-INCOME TAX PLEDGE AND WON AGAINST THOSE WHO SIGNED

CANDIDATES WHO SIGNED THE ANTI-INCOME TAX PLEDGE AND WON AGAINST THOSE WHO DID NOT SIGN

(All these races are House seats won by Republicans)

Sources: TN Secretary of State website: www.state.tn.us/sos/election.htm; www.tennesseetaxpledge.com

Research: Rick Held, Tennesseeans for Fair Taxation, 119 Dameron Av, Knoxville, TN, 37917 865-687-9600, rick@fairtaxation.org